QB · JAX · #16
Through 5 games the rank is QB12, off a QB4 season. Wait for more games before calling it a decline.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,042
Range 6,385–7,663
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection In-season usage moved the score inside this range.
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 total FP
86.9 pts
17.4 PPG
1174 pass yds · 10 pass TD · 59 rush yds
Week 6 projection
18.4 pts
vs HOU · floor–ceiling 10.6–25.3
History starts Preseason 2026.
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Lawrence threw for 1,174 yards and 10 TDs in 2026, ranking QB12 through 5 games. He ranks QB12 through 5 games, down from QB4. Early, not a finished step down. The 2026 projection still has him in every-week starter range. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Trevor Lawrence.
Dynasty Waiver Wire Targets: After Week 5
Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye in Week 6. Four adds with usage behind them, including a tight end who saw 13 targets and a Steelers receiver stepping into two absences.
Redzone & Stalled: Week 4
Touchdowns powered Week 4's biggest beats, and a few offenses threw too little for their stars to hit. The largest gaps between projection and score.
Redzone & Stalled: Week 2
Week 2 dynasty risers and busts: who blew past the projection, and the two quarterbacks who never got going.
Monday Morning QB: Week 1's Best Arms, Checked Against the Board
The best QB performances of Week 1, checked against what NextDyne's board projected coming in — and what it means for dynasty value.
Is Drake Maye the Best Buy-Low QB in Dynasty?
Drake Maye finished QB2 in 2025 and just got A.J. Brown as a new weapon. The latest board has caught up — 8,045 DVS, fourth among quarterbacks.
Jayden Daniels Missed Half of 2025 — Is He Still a Top-Tier Dynasty QB?
Jayden Daniels played just 7 games in 2025 due to three separate injuries. The latest board keeps him in the QB1 mix — 6,973 DVS, 13th among quarterbacks — with an 18.7-point 2026 projection.
Is Brian Thomas Jr. a Buy-Low After His Sophomore Slump?
BTJ went from a Pro Bowl rookie to one of 2025's biggest fantasy busts. Here's why the injuries, not the talent, explain the collapse.
Is Bo Nix Undervalued in Dynasty? The Case for a Healthy, Well-Supported QB2
Bo Nix was a top-5 projected scorer sitting 16th in dynasty value. The latest board closed that gap — here is what changed, and what still matters.
Half-PPR points
86.9
PPG
17.4
Rank so far
QB12
Key stats
2026 week shape
2/5 Boom 40%
0/5 Bust 0%
Boom is 20+ half-PPR. Bust is under 5.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QB12so far | 86.9 | 17.4 | 1174 | 10 | 59 | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | QB4 | 338.2 | 19.9 | 4007 | 29 | 359 | 9 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB27 | 145.2 | 14.5 | 2045 | 11 | 119 | 3 | — | -5 | — |
| 2023 | QB12 | 262.5 | 16.4 | 4016 | 21 | 339 | 4 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB7 | 295.6 | 17.4 | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB23 | 199.0 | 11.7 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | 21.7Boom | PHI | 66 plays · 59% pass | 331 / 2 TD | 25 | 0 |
| 2026 W4 | 13.1 | CIN | 50 plays · 46% pass | 227 / 1 TD | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 W3 | 19.8 | NE | 59 plays · 49% pass | 182 / 3 TD | 25 | 0 |
| 2026 W2 | 6.2 | DEN | 53 plays · 55% pass | 189 | 6 | 0 |
| 2026 W1 | 26.1Boom | CLE | 55 plays · 42% pass | 245 / 4 TD | 3 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the total.
Week 5 Engine grade
Projected 17.5 · scored 21.7 half-PPR · inside the floor–ceiling band. Miss -4.2.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 96.7% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
99.5%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (1 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2026 season to date · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample Full table
11th of 38
24th of 38
5th of 38
16th of 38
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.